CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2017-09-04T20:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2017-09-04T20:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12989/-1
CME Note: Associated with M5.5 flare from AR 12673. CME start time was updated from 2017-09-04T23:06Z. Note that there was also a CME starting on 2017-09-04T19:39Z that was slightly slower but in a similar direction and was likely "merged" with the faster 2017-09-04T20:36Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-06T23:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -23
Dst min. time: 2017-09-07T09:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (British Geological Survey)
Prediction Method Note:
Geomagnetic storm forecast. Chance of aurora on the night of 7 September 2017. ------------------------------------------------------------ http://mailchi.mp/bgs/geomagnetic-disturbance-alert-07-09-2017?e=e25b2d5c1f http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk ** Geomagnetic Disturbance Alert ------------------------------------------------------------ ** 7 September 2017 ------------------------------------------------------------ ** British Geological Survey ------------------------------------------------------------ There is an increased chance of viewing the aurora on the night of 7th September 2017. A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a long duration, moderate solar flare was observed yesterday evening. This emerged from an active region close to the centre of the solar disc. This CME is expected to arrive at Earth early on the morning of the 7th of September bringing geomagnetic STORM conditions. The solar wind speed is also currently elevated due to the waning influence of a northern polar coronal hole. This may further contribute to the enhancement of geomagnetic activity. Assuming clear dark skies, and that the geomagnetic field is suitably disturbed, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora. In the UK, those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland may have the best opportunities. For more information on this event please visit: http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/alerts/alert_2017-09-07.html For more advice on viewing the Northern Lights please visit: http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/viewing_aurora.html For current UK activity levels please see: http://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/Global_activity_now.html See where people are talking about the aurora in the UK now: http://www.bgs.ac.uk/citizenScience/geosocial/home.html ============================================================ ** follow on Twitter (https://www.twitter.com/BGSauroraAlert/) | ** friend on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/BritishGeologicalSurvey) | ** forward to a friend (http://us5.forward-to-friend1.com/forward?u=f5af5daa8514a1b71c00e5cf6&id=8c1538c510&e=e25b2d5c1f) Copyright © 2017 British Geological Survey, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you signed up to our Space Weather Alert Email service at our website http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk.Lead Time: 38.40 hour(s)
Difference: -6.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2017-09-05T08:44Z
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